Contributed project tabsOverviewThe aim of this project is to improve agricultural productivity in Tonga by enhancing data availability and agro-meteorological services Pillar: Research, Modeling and PredictionBenefits: • Considering the relatively low levels of technology, infrastructure, and economic development of Tonga, the project provides practical support to solve these issues. • Capacity building to improve basic skills and essential infrastructure in agricultural sector to enable Tonga to more independently cope with climate variability and change. • In line with the GFCS, this project delivers climate services to agricultural areas in Tonga, which may result in an international recognition of this project as a model case for the GFCS. • forecasts developed through this project with information about crop yield and diseases/pests of certain crops can be used to assist stakeholders including policy makers, extension workers and farmers in timely decision-making, and to enhance Tonga’s agricultural climate resilience. Activities: 1. Assessment of users’ needs and capacities 1.1. Begin initial discussions with stakeholders 1.2. Conduct inception workshop to identify needs and capacities of users 2. Development of an agriculture database 2.1. Collate and sort data for agricultural database 2.2. Develop customized database 2.3. Support the use of database into MAFFF (Ministry of Agriculture & Forestry and Food) policy 3. Research on the core relationships between climate and agriculture through modelling and field trials 3.1. Install automatic weather stations on selected sites 3.2. Develop statistical models based on historical climate and crop production data. Based on historical time series, the relationships between crop production data and meteorological data will be examined. Research and modeling work to be done include finding the statistical relationship between crop production or crop disease (pest incidence) and climate data (based on historic weather station data or climate indices). Based on the statistical relationships derived, statistical models which can predict yield or disease, especially those linked to seasonal forecasts such as ENSO phases, will be produced. Seasonal forecasts from the Asian Pacific Climate Center (APCC) and the SCOPIC project will be used. Forecasts from other institutions such as the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) may also be used. The outputs will include: predicted yield and risk level of certain pests and diseases. 3.3. Conduct field trials for process-based crop model development 3.4. Develop process-based models based on field trials data and other data sources. Based on the data from the field trials, the APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) software will be parameterized. Downscaling of the seasonal forecasts will also be done 3.5. Validate statistical models and conduct workshop to train MAFFF for model operation and use 4. Development and delivery of an agro-climate service 4.1. Develop web-based climate service product incorporating agricultural and climate predictions. The technical specifications of the product will be determined based on partners and stakeholders consultations, outputs of the inception workshop, as well as the state of the art in agroclimate products and tools. 4.2. Conduct national workshop to introduce climate service and project outcomes to stakeholders A national workshop discussing the project outputs and outcomes will be held involving all project stakeholders. The new climate service product will also be launched together with training sessions on its use and the potential for further development will be explored. The workshop outputs as well as feedback from the participants will be documented and incorporated in the final report. 5. Monitoring and project reporting Objectives: To develop strategies for improving agricultural risk management capacity in selected Tonga cropping systems underpinned by sound understanding of the core relationship between climate and agriculture Deliverables/Outcomes: 1. Assessment of users’ needs and capacities 2. Development of an agriculture database 3. Research on the core relationships between climate and agriculture through modelling and field trials 4. Development and delivery of an agro-climate service Inputs: • APCC dynamical seasonal forecasting system • Tonga agricultural data Risks: • Climate forecasting effectively, successfully, and reliably predicts extreme climate events and climate variability on a regional level that is customized to each country’s needs • Low uptake of climate service product Resource requirements: 434,000 USD Indicators and assessment measures: • Improvement of the prediction capacity of TMS • Robust agricultural database developed • User satisfaction improved • More consistent and regular use of weather and climate information among national level stakeholders • Project implemented on time and allocated budget About the Project Goal: Building the resilience of the agricultural sector in Tonga to climate change and variability through the increase capability to predict and understand the effects of hydro-climatic conditions on agricultural productivity Scope: NationalCountries Involved: Republic of KoreaTongaSector: Food Security and AgricultureSubmitting Agency: APEC Climate CentreTimeline: August 2014 – December 2016 PartnersTonga Ministry of Agriculture, and Food, Forests, and Fisheries (MAFFF)Tonga Meteorological Service (TMS)
